It stole in for just a short stay and stole away in the same quiet way. The mornings weather station report was 74° at 6am. Here we are sneaking up on the autumnal equinox and the temperatures are on the rise again. It’s just a few degrees difference, but my how I miss those few degrees.
Checking in over at North Carolina Mountain Dreams, I see that fall has settled in in the mountains. The weather bug from Ray is calling the temperature in Valle Crucis at 53°. Now that’s the way to start a morning…hot cup of coffee and laptop on the porch watching the sun rise over the mountains. The sounds of the birds welcoming the morning with tumbling water sounds from a nearby creek…
I can see from the Floyd, Virginia forecast that Fred has had the wood stove fired up every morning this week. I am glad that the recent tropical surprise we had dropped some much needed rain on all my friends in the mountains.
Standing outside the past few days has gotten somewhat dangerous around our house. The sounds of fall are filling the air and what those sounds mean can hurt. The acorn crop is falling and it’s a big one these fall. It almost sounds like a slow rain in summer when the drops are the size of quarters but only falling ever’ once-n-a-while. Is there something to be read into a mast crop that covers the ground about the coming winter…or is the go lord just telling me I need a hog?
On the tropical weather front, things are still getting interesting for the weekend…
Once 93L emerges into the Gulf of Mexico Thursday, all of the models indicate the storm will intensify. This is a very complex forecast situation, since the storm is starting out with the cold core of an ordinary non-tropical low pressure system, and will transition to a warm-cored tropical storm. The transition to a warm core system will probably take at least a day. A storm undergoing such a process cannot intensify rapidly while this is occurring. This means that if 93L hits New Orleans Friday night/Saturday morning as the GFS and GFDL models are predicting, the storm will likely still be below hurricane strength–as predicted by the 8am EDT run of the SHIPS intensity model–or a minimal Category 1 hurricane–as predicted by this morning’s 06Z run of the GFDL model. I think a tropical storm is more likely. Such a track would take it just north of the high heat content waters of the Loop Current in the central Gulf of Mexico (Figure 2). If 93L takes a more southerly track as the ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict, it will have an extra day over water, and more time to firmly establish a warm core. A warm core, fully tropical system is capable of must faster intensification rates. A more southerly track would also take the storm over the high heat content waters of the Loop Current, further aiding the transition to a warm core system. Texas could see a Category 1 or 2 hurricane on Sunday in this scenario. Slowing down the intensification will be the presence of plenty of dry air to the northwest, however, and a tropical storm may be all that Texas would see.
This could be another interesting weather situation to watch as we work through the rest of the week.